Forex News: US Dollar Struggles, Looks for a Volatility Boost from FOMC Meeting Minutes


Forex News: Political turmoil in Germany, combined with modest US Dollar strength took the pair below support yesterday. However, price remained in a tight range for almost the entire session.

US Dollar Struggles, Looks for a Volatility Boost from FOMC Meeting Minutes 1 

Technical Outlook

The pair’s gains seen Monday were totally erased and now the bears are trying to push price below the confluence zone created by 1.1735 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If they succeed, the first target will become the support at 1.1700, followed by the zone around 1.1670; the oscillators are showing bearish momentum, favouring a move into the next support but a lot will depend on the US data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

The first U.S. data release will be the Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years and is expected to post a reading of 0.4% (previous 2.0%). Higher than anticipated numbers show increased economic activity and usually strengthen the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate meeting. The document contains insights into the reasons that determined the latest rate decision but can also contain hints about future rate hikes and other monetary policy matters. If this is the case, the US Dollar will probably have a strong reaction, thus caution is recommended.



The pair retreated yesterday without threatening 1.3280 resistance but found support around 1.3225 zone and bounced higher. Both currencies in the pair lack a clear direction, so we can expect to see more choppiness.

US Dollar Struggles, Looks for a Volatility Boost from FOMC Meeting Minutes 2

Technical Outlook

The pair is capped by the resistance at 1.3280 and the support at 1.3225, so until we see a clear breakout, we can expect reversals within the range. A break of support will take price into the 50 period EMA, while a break of resistance will open the door for a move into the key level at 1.3320. Both the US Dollar and the Pound will be affected today by important events, so there’s an increased chance of a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT, HM Treasury will release the Autumn Forecast Statement, which contains an economic outlook and offers information about the government’s budget for the upcoming year. The Statement is released once per year and can have a significant impact on the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 7-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.