Forex News: Pullbacks Reach Key Support. Another Rally in the Making?
Forex News: The sellers were in control for the most part of yesterday’s trading session, mostly due to technical reasons because the fundamental scene was calm and without any notable releases.
Price is currently retracing from highs and approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as it remains above the 50 EMA, the move is considered a normal pullback after an extended period of upside movement but a break of the mentioned support will possibly trigger a stronger move south. However, the uptrend is still in place as long as 1.2200 remains support.
The first event of the day will be the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and because the German economy is one of the most important in the Eurozone, the impact of the CPI is usually high. The time of release is 1:00 pm GMT, the expected change is -0.5% (previous 0.6%) and higher values usually strengthen the Euro.
At 3:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey will come out, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about overall economic conditions in the United States. A higher than anticipated value suggests that consumer spending will increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the US Dollar. The forecast is 123.2 but the impact is usually medium, not high.
The US Dollar showed signs of recovery yesterday, so the session belonged mostly to the sellers, who managed to break the previous support at 1.4100.
The break of 1.4100 is an important victory for the bears but now they are facing a more important support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of this barrier will take the pair into 1.4000, which is a key level, both from a technical standpoint, as well as psychological. Our outlook remains bearish for the short term but the pair is still in a clear and strong uptrend.
Today at 3:30 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. This speech has the potential to move the Pound strongly, so we recommend caution if trading at the time.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer’s 8-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.