Forex News: Buckle Up for the First Non-Farm Payrolls Report of the Year

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite a much better than expected ADP jobs report, the pair climbed strongly for most of yesterday’s trading session. 1.2000 is now confirmed as strong support and resistance is once again threatened.

Buckle Up for the First Non-Farm Payrolls Report of the Year 1

Technical Outlook

The previous high was broken today after a textbook retracement that found support at 1.2000 so all hints point towards a trend continuation and a break of 1.2092 (last year’s high). If this barrier is broken, the next hurdle is located far away, in the 1.2280 zone so surely some weeks will pass until (or if) that mark is hit. A lot will depend today on the outcome of the U.S. jobs report, so the technical aspect will be secondary, especially around the time of release.  

Fundamental Outlook

The first major event of the day will be the release of the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation in the Eurozone and usually has a strong impact on the single currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The anticipated change is 1.4%, a drop from the previous 1.5%.

Later in the day the US Non-Farm Payrolls will be released, showing changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important US jobs data and has a strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher levels of employment suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the greenback. The anticipated change is 188K (previous 228K) and the time of release is 1:30 pm GMT.

 

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced at support and moved higher throughout yesterday’s session but the Pound’s climb wasn’t as steep as the Euro’s.

Buckle Up for the First Non-Farm Payrolls Report of the Year 2

Technical Outlook

Our short term outlook is neutral until we see a clear break or bounce at 1.3550. Once that happens, the next respective targets will become 1.3600 or 1.3500 but keep in mind that the pair will be also affected by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major releases scheduled for the Pound, but the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair’s movement.

 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 8-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.